11th September 2025, NewsOrient, Opinion, Column, News, Law And Society
By John Chukwu Anyim

Revolutions are seductive in theory, but catastrophic in reality. They begin with fiery promises of justice and liberation, but often end in ruins, blood, and shattered societies.

Nigeria today stands on the dangerous edge of such an abyss. The anger is palpable, the discontent is real, and history is littered with lessons. If we ignore them, we may stumble into the chaos that consumed Nepal and worse.

The Nepal Example: A Bloody Reminder

In 1996, Nepal plunged into a civil war that would last a decade. What started as protests over inequality, corruption, and exclusion escalated into a Maoist armed revolution. By 2006, more than 17,000 lives had been lost, thousands displaced, and the economy left in tatters. Schools closed, farmlands were abandoned, and an entire generation was scarred.

The revolution did not deliver the justice people sought; it delivered scars that linger to this day.

Nepal became a cautionary tale: when leaders ignore the cries of their people, revolutions rise, not as salvation, but as destruction, Nigeria must pay attention, for the cracks in our own foundation are wider than those that broke Nepal.

Nigeria’s Fragile Fabric

Nigeria is Africa’s giant by size and population, yet her people live in poverty that mocks her wealth. The social fabric is fraying, According to multiple reports, more than 130 million Nigerians live in multidimensional poverty, jobless graduates roam the streets while political elites flaunt stolen wealth, bandits, terrorists, kidnappers, and unknown gunmen terrorize communities, billions are looted yearly while basic infrastructure collapses., fault lines are widening, with secessionist agitations in the East, militant threats in the Niger Delta, and farmer-herder clashes across the Middle Belt, this is a dangerous cocktail.

Revolutions are not born in comfort, they are born in hunger, injustice, and hopelessness.

Case Study 1: The Civil War of 1967–1970

Nigeria has already tasted the bitter fruit of internal conflict. When mistrust, injustice, and exclusion pushed the Eastern region into declaring Biafra, the nation spiraled into a brutal civil war. Over a million lives were lost, mostly to hunger and disease. Villages were wiped out. Families were shattered, the lesson is simple: when grievances are ignored, people seek desperate exits, and the cost is always blood.

Case Study 2: June 12, 1993 : When Democracy Was Stolen

The annulment of the June 12 election, widely regarded as the freest in Nigeria’s history, unleashed riots, protests, and a wave of instability. Nigerians had spoken at the ballot, but the military silenced their voice. For years, democracy was held hostage, and the people’s anger nearly tore the nation apart, It was not until 1999 that civilian rule returned. But the scars of June 12 remind us that denying justice fuels resistance.

Case Study 3: Niger Delta Militancy

In the 2000s, decades of neglect and exploitation pushed the Niger Delta youth into militancy. Oil installations were bombed, expatriates kidnapped, and the nation’s economy strangled. Government eventually negotiated amnesty, but not before billions were lost and lives wasted, this militancy was a mini-revolution in itself, a warning of what happens when a people feel cheated in their own land.

Case Study 4: The 2012 Fuel Subsidy Protests

When the government announced fuel subsidy removal in January 2012, the streets erupted. From Lagos to Kano, millions of Nigerians protested what they saw as another betrayal by the elite. For weeks, the country was on lockdown. The message was clear: Nigerians will not remain silent when policies threaten their survival,The protests may have fizzled, but the anger has never died. It was a rehearsal for bigger uprisings.

Case Study 5: EndSARS, 2020

The EndSARS movement remains Nigeria’s clearest glimpse into what a revolution could look like. What started as a peaceful protest against police brutality quickly grew into a nationwide demand for good governance. Millions of youths mobilized without leaders, united by a simple cry: enough is enough, for weeks, the country shook. Then came the tragic night of October 20, 2020, at the Lekki Toll Gate. Blood was spilled, and the trust between citizens and the state shattered. Nigeria has never been the same since, The youth have tasted the power of collective action. they are watching.

Case Study 6: Subsidy Removal Crisis of 2023

When fuel subsidy was removed in 2023, hardship multiplied overnight. Transport costs tripled, food prices soared, and inflation reached record highs. Protests broke out in parts of the country, though quickly suppressed. But anger still simmers.

Nigerians are now forced to choose between hunger and survival, while politicians continue to live in opulence, this widening inequality is dangerous. Hunger is the spark of revolutions.

Why Nigeria Cannot Afford a Revolution

If a small nation like Nepal could bleed so much, Nigeria would burn, our diversity is both strength and weakness. In a revolution, ethnic and religious divisions will fuel chaos, our size means any conflict here will destabilize West Africa and ripple across the continent, our economy, already fragile, will collapse beyond repair, Millions of lives could be lost, and the dream of “One Nigeria” buried forever, revolutions rarely end well. Libya, Syria, and Nepal testify to this. Nigeria will not be different.

The Rotten System Feeding the Fire

The danger lies in leadership that appears deaf and blind to the suffering of the people, lawmakers earn billions while workers earn peanuts, political elites fly private jets while hospitals lack basic drugs, farmers risk death in their own fields while bandits roam free, youths are told to be patient while the future is stolen before their eyes, this is injustice, and injustice is the fuel of revolution.

The Alternative: Reform, Justice, Dialogue

The solution is not bullets or repression. The solution is urgent reform, cut the cost of governance: end wasteful spending and obscene allowances, tackle insecurity, sincerely equip and reform security agencies, end corruption in military budgets, and bring peace to rural communities; invest in youths, create jobs, support education, and stop the brain drain, fight corruption; punish looters regardless of tribe, religion, or political party; dialogue, not suppression, listen to the people; engage civil society, restore trust.

A Final Warning to Nigeria’s Leaders

The lesson of Nepal is written in blood. When leaders ignore the cries of their people, revolutions rise. Nigeria’s ruling elite must not deceive themselves that this country is “too big to fail.” The fire of discontent is already lit. The hunger in the streets is real. The anger of the youth is boiling. A revolution in Nigeria will not be romantic; it will be ruinous. It will not liberate; it will annihilate. And no government, no army, no power will be able to contain it once it begins.

The time to act is now. The time to reform is today. Tomorrow may be too late.

-John Chukwu Anyim is a public affairs commentator

~ Published By NewsOrient Network

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